Bitcoin boom or crypto winter? Some technical levels to watch

Bitcoin has remained stable in the range despite global asset markets being whippedsawed by a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and then Russia’s invasion Ukraine.

The smallest dips below $33,000 were rare; the maximum was never more than $46,000. The sideways trading continued, and Vladimir Putin’s war with Ukraine — as well as the harsh financial sanctions imposed upon Russia in retaliation — fuelled a long-running discussion about crypto: Is it the ultimate refuge from growing government overreach? Is it just another risk-on asset? Or is it a tool to avoid sanctions?

Technical analysts will be more interested in the details of the discussion. This includes identifying the trading patterns and numerical levels that might indicate a trend break. This could push Bitcoin out of its range, and possibly ushering in a bear market or a strong recovery.

Below are the views of five analysts on key levels to be on the lookout for, both on the upside as well as the downside.

The Bull Case

Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton uses trend-following indicators to identify technical support levels and resistance levels. She sent an email Thursday confirming that Bitcoin will face its next resistance around the $51,000 to $50,000 area. Her “secondary breakout level” is close to $55,000

Ron William, the founder of RW Market Advisory, says that Bitcoin’s tactical upside breakout zone is still between $44,550 to $46,000. He refers to so-called accumulation patterns that have been recently supported by safe-haven flow triggered by increasing geopolitical tensions.

Christopher Grafton (Managing Director at Vectisma Ltd.) stated that Bitcoin will be able to sustain a break above the $45,000 key resistance, which would open the door to $54,000 next.

The Bear Case

Jonathan Cheesman is head of institutional and over-the-counter sales at crypto exchange FTX. He points out the 50-day moving mean as well as recent lows at $33,000 and $34,500, as levels to monitor — $29,000 being “the biggest downside level,” he wrote in an email Tuesday.

William of RW Advisory says $20,000 would provide far more bearish support. According to William of RW Advisory, it is both psychologically significant and a target for long-term regression analysis. Since December 2020, Bitcoin has not traded at this low level.

Andy Dodd is a technical analyst with Louis Capital Markets. He sees Bitcoin moving lower than the neckline in what he calls “head-and shoulder top patterns” — which yields an target of $16,100. He said this via email Thursday. This is 77 percent less than the November peak Bitcoin reached.