Stock market seems to have stolen some attention from bitcoin (BTC), with young investors turning to equities. But as many expect a sharp correction and more volatility ahead, crypto analysts wonder what this would mean for the world’s oldest crypto.
“So far bulls are in charge,” writes Bloomberg, as stocks regain USD 21 trillion in value since the drop in March. For the US specifically, the easing of lockdowns, positive employment numbers, and “a wall of money from the guardians of global economies,” are among the factors leading to an increase in buyers. However, many worry that this may be a bear market bounce, and that the future holds more volatility over the short term, with some investors now increasing hedges.
What happens to equities may matter for BTC as the two showed a strong correlation leading up to the March crash and immediately following it, though this correlation is constantly being questioned.
BTC and S&P 500 correlation chart (90-day moving average)
However, already a month ago, major names in finance were raising the alarm that stocks are vastly overvalued. Back then, analysts told Our that BTC would feel the impact, but, this time, there is a chance it might be different.
In June, when it comes to stocks, “the risk of a correction will rise if investors continue to price in a rapid recovery, especially for sectors that are vulnerable to another wave of infections or an escalation of tensions between the US and China,” Tai Hui, Chief Asia Market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management is quoted as saying. Bloomberg also quoted a note from Rabobank, saying: “If everyone is holding stocks just to pass on to the next greater fool, and if the greatest fool is a central bank with infinite liquidity to buy them, then, yes, prices will keep going up.”
The ridiculous moves across the stock market have made me rethink my position on a “2017-like” altseason ever happening again.
160k Robinhood users pumping a bankrupt stock almost 10x.
Enjoy the ride. pic.twitter.com/m6jjf85m5V
— Luke Martin (@VentureCoinist) June 9, 2020
As reported, the trading volumes for BTC and ethereum (ETH) both decreased by 5% and 2%, respectively, during the month of May. However, much of this volume has instead moved into more volatile altcoins.
Meanwhile, Ran NeuNer, CEO of Onchain Capital, a crypto investment and advisory business, tweeted that “trading the stock market these days is so much more fun than Crypto!”, drawing a number of reactions. “When you start to see comments like this, the top is near – brace for impact,” says analyst Teddy Cleps. Popular crypto investor WhalePanda said the comment is exactly why he dumped the majority of equities after being up 80% on the portfolio since March.
Weren’t you that guy who advised to have at least 50-70 altcoins back in 2018/19?
I can imagine trading stocks is more fun.
— Crypto_Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) June 10, 2020
My 20yo son, stationed on an airbase in Turkey, just called to tell me about all the guys on the base going around bragging about how much money they’ve made buying “one-dollar stocks” on Robinhood.
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 9, 2020
Seriously if all the Robinhoodies coordinate on social media they can short squeeze the fuck out of hedge fund managers.
— Qiao Wang (@QWQiao) June 9, 2020